Well, well, well. There just might be an OPEC freeze after all.
The two stumbling blocks to a deal have always been Iran and Russia. Iran wants to be free to increase their production levels to what they were before all the international sanction. And Russia are just dicks who like to meddle. Well Russia has now said that they will horror a freeze as long as Iran gets to produce at pre sanction levels. This is kind of a big deal. It means that a freeze will probably happen at the OPEC meetings later this month. OPEC will be able to save a little face and retain some semblance of a cohesive entity, and the markets will stop fearing the Sauds and their empty threats to produce another million barrels or two per day.
But why is this happening. Well Iran will get their production up regardless of what OPEC decides. Saudi Arabia might be able to drive the oil price back up for their Aramco auction without being obvious about it, and the rest of OPEC gets to keep doing what they are doing and make more money. So what does Russia get out of all of this. More power in the region, and the ability to continue their proxy way with the US along the Sunni/Shiite split.
It is becoming more and more clear that Russia has its sights set on the region. They swooped in after the attempted coup in Turkey to be their BFF’s, and have long been assisting the Assad regime in Syria. This also draws a line in the sand. Russia is firmly behind the Shiite Iran and Assad. While the US is supporting the Sunni Saudi Arabia and Iraq, and the Syrian rebels. Its like Vietnam all over again, hooray!
Saturday, September 3, 2016
Russia And Iran
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