Friday, June 24, 2016

China Can Fuck It All Up

In the past thirty years China has gone from an oil exporter to the largest importer in the world. And as their domestic production continues to drop, their usage keeps rising by consumers and industry. So more than any country, they benefit from cheap oil. They have spent the past two years stockpiling as much oil as they can. And unlike the US, they can and probably will use that stockpile to affect the market. We are just approaching a tipping point where global production is dropping to meet demand. When production drops below, the price of oil will inevitably rise. What happens if China cuts their imports by a few million barrels? They wouldn't even need to dip into their stockpiles, just stop adding to them. They have the potential to mess up the whole global supply and demand balance. They could keep the price of oil deflated for months.

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