Stupid Speculators

OMG the US oil rig counts are up! The Cushing stockpile is down less than expected! Oil will go back to a dollar a barrel!
This is why looking at short term trends is idiotic. If you poke around in crusty government websites you can find real data of actual importance. Like how much oil the US is actually producing on a weekly basis. And you get to see real numbers like the US is down over almost a million barrels per day in production from peak. Almost a 200K BPD decline in the past week alone. The expected US collapse is happening. The only question is will the drop off in production be as sharp as the drop in drilling was last year. Next week’s data will be telling. It will almost certainly show a decline in production, but will it be as steep as the 200k BPD drop?

The US will still shed another few million BPD in the next year or two. Before the shale boom the US was producing just five and a half million barrels per day. With the continued lack of investment capitol and drilling the US could foreseeably drop back to those numbers.